The Great Linux Opportunity
The desktop computing landscape is changing. Apple has completed their switch to ARM processors for all of their devices; from the high end Mac Pros to their smart watches. More than just a processor change, ARM is enabling them craft truly impressive computing devices which is so far unmatched in performance and price in the industry. Recently they launched the ipad pro with an M4 processor and a decent keyboard which for some people is all the computing they will ever need.
The base model ipad pro starts at 1,000. You can get a PC with an older processor for much less but if you want to get a comparable PC Laptop, with Intel Processors and a decent graphics card, the Air is a hard to beat.
Microsoft have been making a few curious decisions on their Windows platform lately:
- Requiring Trusted Platform Module (TPM) support to upgrade to Windows 11 rendering perfectly good working PC unable to upgrade and stuck on Windows 10 which reaches end of life in October 2025.
- including Ads in the Windows start menu
- Big AI push
Copilot all the things
Microsoft have been relentlessly pushing Copilot, their AI brand name is in beta on current PCs running the latest Windows 11 builds. I use it occasionally and it's ok for simple queries, though not as fast in responding to questions as ChatGPT.
Recently in the Build developer conference, Microsoft announced a number of Copilot features including Recall, an AI system that remembers the apps and content you use, and takes screenshots of your activity on your computer - think bank statements, passwords, web pages. Let me know if you're triggered. They say nothing is sent over the wire and storage is on device but you can imagine how this is a security and privacy nightmare. Already the UK is asking questions about the safeguards around this feature.
Understandably, not everyone is happy with all this AI nonsense, most notably gamers. There is a renewed curiously for Linux. Almost every computer hardware can install Linux. On my personal computer, I have Debian Bookworm running. But Linux has a reputation for not being user friendly, requiring knowledge of how the terminal works to perform certain operations. On the other hand it offers unrivaled control over your computer, and near endless customisation.
Linux Opportunity
Linux sits in the middle between Windows and the Mac. While the Mac is extremely locked down and binds you into the Apple Ecosystem, Windows is more open to customisation and tinkering but changing directions in ways not everyone appreciates.
The two most popular Linux distributions for new users are Ubuntu and Linux Mint. Desktop Linux market share is a little over 4% in May 2024. The opportunity for growth is huge but it will not happen unless there is a concerted effort to capture the market. The strength of Linux is also its weakness; an abundance of choice. You get to choose your distribution, desktop environment, display manager, etc. It's death by a million choices. This choice is what makes Linux appealing to many, it speaks to the Open Source ethos of the Linux kernel and projects in the ecosystem, but it also work against its adoption.
For Linux to gain market share, it must change.
- It must go against its ethos and offer an opinionated desktop operating system that drastically simplifies user choice.
- It must offer software that is compatible with what is available on Windows and Mac or compelling alternatives.
- It must come packaged in hardware that has been built, tested and optimised for Linux like the Steam Deck. When I say it, I'm referring to a singular entity or a collective with the ambition to be in effect what Samsung is to Android.